WHAT IT MEASURESJOLTS estimates job openings on the last business day of the month and hires, quits, layoffs and other separations throughout the month.
WHY MARKETS WATCHOpenings show labor demand, while hires and quits add context about matching, worker confidence and wage pressure. Markets compare the components rather than treating one openings figure as a complete labor-market verdict.
COMPARISON THAT MATTERSIn August, job openings were little changed at 7.1 million, hires at 5.2 million and total separations at 5.1 million; quits were 3.1 million and layoffs and discharges 1.6 million. Compare September with those levels, revisions and rates—not an unsupported forecast.
TWO-SIDED SCENARIO MAP01A broad rise in openings, hires and quits could point to firmer labor demand and worker mobility, while keeping wage and policy questions active.02Lower openings with softer hiring or quits could indicate cooling demand; a fall concentrated in one industry would carry a narrower message than broad weakness.
WHAT IT MEASURESMeasures U.S. exports and imports of goods and services and the resulting trade balance, reported on a balance-of-payments basis.
WHY MARKETS WATCHTrade affects measured GDP and can reveal changes in domestic demand, foreign demand, supply chains and the mix of goods and services activity.
COMPARISON THAT MATTERSThe August deficit was $105.6 billion, up from a revised $92.8 billion in July, as exports rose to $315.2 billion and imports rose to $420.8 billion. Compare September's balance with both flows and revisions—not the deficit alone.
TWO-SIDED SCENARIO MAP01A narrower deficit driven by stronger exports could suggest firmer external demand; a narrowing caused mainly by weaker imports could instead point to softer domestic demand.02A wider deficit can reflect resilient import demand or weaker exports. The GDP implication and business signal depend on which side of the ledger changed.
Productivity & Costs · Third Quarter · Preliminary
WHAT IT MEASURESEstimates nonfarm-business output per hour, hours worked, hourly compensation and unit labor costs at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
WHY MARKETS WATCHProductivity can support real growth and margins, while unit labor costs connect compensation with output. Markets watch whether wage gains are being matched by more output per hour.
COMPARISON THAT MATTERSSecond-quarter nonfarm-business productivity rose 1.4% annualized, output 1.7% and hours 0.3%; unit labor costs rose 1.2%. Compare the preliminary third-quarter mix and remember that this release is subject to revision.
TWO-SIDED SCENARIO MAP01Stronger productivity with contained unit labor costs could improve the growth-versus-cost picture, though one preliminary quarter does not establish a trend.02Weak productivity or faster unit labor-cost growth could raise margin and inflation questions; compensation, output and hours should be read together before drawing conclusions.
WHAT IT MEASURESCombines a household survey of labor-force status and unemployment with an establishment survey of payrolls, hours and earnings by industry.
WHY MARKETS WATCHThe report is a broad monthly read on labor demand, unemployment and wage growth—inputs for household income, company costs and the monetary-policy discussion.
COMPARISON THAT MATTERSIn September, nonfarm payrolls rose 29,000, unemployment was 4.2%, average hourly earnings rose 0.1% month over month and 3.0% year over year, and July–August payrolls were revised down by a combined 60,000. Compare October with those revised baselines, hours and industry breadth.
TWO-SIDED SCENARIO MAP01Broader payroll growth with stable unemployment could support a resilient-demand view, while stronger wage growth might keep labor-cost questions active.02Softer payrolls or higher unemployment could increase concern about labor demand; slower wage growth or revisions may change the interpretation, and the two surveys can diverge.
™